Extinction Model

Cubic spline coefficients and nonparametric test results are not yet complete, nor are the multiple regression models.  We start with the potential that all plants are “rare.”  In fact, words don’t adequately explain plant disappearance (extinction), but mathematics does.  Plant populations: = 0 (extinct), possessing a slope to extinction (year to year) of < 1.0 or >= 1.0 … the latter described as “abundant and of no concern.”  The predicted variable would be the estimated year of extinction.  The sole composite predictor would be the “slope” of the extinction equation.  Only 3 mathematical states exist: =0 ……. <1.0 …… = 1.0.  Variables now being used to create the composite slope include:

SAM Student Visits to 20,000 Historic Cascadia Herbaria Collection Sites
# of Populations Visited
# of sites still with these plants
# of new Populations Found elsewhere
# of site population photos verifying
SAM 2018 & 2019 Visits to Herbaria Sites
Unique Species Planted
and now growing in the Gardens
Burke URL Records
~1/2 of Burke photos, their median year
Most Recent Photo Year
  Earliest Photo Year
Legler Median Year
Present Year BBG or SAM
Visual View of Plant Distributions
~# Populations in W WA (visual dot count)
~# Populations in E WA (visual dot count)
~# of total populations in WA
Herbaria (All) Records
Year 1st Described
Median Year
Year Last Found
Total Sites logged in all Herbaria
Restated WA State Rare Status
Extinct
Endangered
Threatened
Sensitive
Trending to Extinction
Abundant of No Concern
Global WA State Rare Status
Extinct
Endangered
Threatened
Sensitive
Trending to Extinction
Abundant
Native Floristic Ranges
Local Endemic
Regional Endemic
Cascadia
Rocky Mountain
North America
Flower Color
White
Yellow
Orange
Red-Pink
Purple-Blue
Green
Brown
Type
Fern
Grass
Herb
Shrub
Tree
Vine
Season Abbreviation
A
B
C
D
Plants Age Range
Average Age
Maximum Age Value
Habitat
Bogs Ponds Sreams
Coastal Areas
Meadows Dry Open
Forest & Understory
Moist Open
Moist Shady
Sub-Alpine Slopes
Common Range in Feet
Low
High
Range Mid, Mean, Max Temperatures
Minimum Temperature (6 hours duration)
Mean
Maximum Temperature (6 hours duration)
Coordinates
Longitude
Latitude
Favored Soil
Clay
Loam
Peat
Rocky
Sand
Serpentine
Silt
Exposure
SW
NW
NE
SE
Any All
Mean Ph
Below NW
>6.5 to <7.0
>=7.0